How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Sūduva to win 35%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Sūduva and 1.3 from Žalgiris Vilnius, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sūduva to win. Sūduva are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 36% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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