What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Hegelmann and 1.3 from FK Panevėžys, so Hegelmann come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Hegelmann come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Hegelmann to win. Hegelmann are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.2), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
FK Panevėžys only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 42% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
