How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Žalgiris Vilnius to win 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Žalgiris Vilnius and 1.0 from FA Šiauliai, so Žalgiris Vilnius come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Žalgiris Vilnius to win. Žalgiris Vilnius are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.0), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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