How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made AS Jeunesse Esch to win 52%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from AS Jeunesse Esch and 1.2 from FC Wiltz 71, so AS Jeunesse Esch come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: AS Jeunesse Esch to win. AS Jeunesse Esch are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.2), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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