F91 Dudelange v Racing FC Union Luxembourg: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made F91 Dudelange to win 45%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.9 goals from F91 Dudelange and 1.3 from Racing FC Union Luxembourg, so F91 Dudelange come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

F91 Dudelange come into this on two straight defeats. Racing FC Union Luxembourg come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: F91 Dudelange to win. F91 Dudelange are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.3), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.