How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. We made FC Progrès Niederkorn to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from FC Progrès Niederkorn and 1.3 from US Rumelange, so FC Progrès Niederkorn come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Progrès Niederkorn to win. FC Progrès Niederkorn are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.3), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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