How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made F91 Dudelange to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from F91 Dudelange and 1.1 from FC Victoria Rosport, so F91 Dudelange come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: F91 Dudelange to win. F91 Dudelange are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.1), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
F91 Dudelange have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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