FC Résidence Walferdange v FC Wiltz 71: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 4.4 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made FC Résidence Walferdange to win 54%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.6 goals from FC Résidence Walferdange and 1.8 from FC Wiltz 71, so FC Résidence Walferdange come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: FC Résidence Walferdange to win. FC Résidence Walferdange are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-1.8), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.96, which works out at about 51 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.