How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made FC Victoria Rosport to win 41%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from FC Victoria Rosport and 1.5 from US Hostert, so FC Victoria Rosport come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Victoria Rosport to win. FC Victoria Rosport are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.5), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.90, which works out at about 34 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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