US Hostert v F91 Dudelange: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made F91 Dudelange to win 54%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from US Hostert and 2.3 from F91 Dudelange, so F91 Dudelange come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

F91 Dudelange come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: F91 Dudelange to win. F91 Dudelange shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-2.3), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.