How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FC Progrès Niederkorn to win 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from FC Wiltz 71 and 2.2 from FC Progrès Niederkorn, so FC Progrès Niederkorn come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Progrès Niederkorn to win. FC Progrès Niederkorn shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-2.2), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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