How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made FC Differdange 03 to win 86%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.9 goals from FC Differdange 03 and 0.5 from FC Etzella Ettelbrück, so FC Differdange 03 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Differdange 03 to win. FC Differdange 03 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.9-0.5), and we make them about 87% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 86 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.09, which works out at about 92 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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