How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from CF Montreal and 1.3 from DC United, so CF Montreal come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CF Montreal to win. CF Montreal are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.3), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.27, which works out at about 44 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for DC United to spoil this. We only make this about 48%, so it's far from a lock.
