How it turned out
We projected about 4.5 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Orlando City and 2.1 from FC Cincinnati, so Orlando City come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 4.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 4.5 goals between the two (xG 2.4-2.1), landing about 68% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
FC Cincinnati have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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