How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Chicago Fire and 1.4 from New England Revolution, so Chicago Fire come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Chicago Fire come into this on four straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.1 goals (xG 1.8-1.3), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 82%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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