How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Over 2.5 goals 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Columbus Crew and 1.1 from DC United, so Columbus Crew come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Columbus Crew come into this on five straight wins. DC United come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.9-1.1), landing about 58% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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