How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Los Angeles Galaxy host New England Revolution on September 6 in an MLS clash that could move the table a little. The Galaxy sit 11th out of 15 with 29 points after 24 games and a –6 goal difference. One place above them, Minnesota United are just a point ahead, while Portland Timbers sit one spot below, a point back. The Revolution are much higher up, fourth with 37 points from 23 matches and a +8 goal difference. Chicago Fire sit a point above New England and Charlotte FC a point below. Both sides will be looking to improve their positions, but the stakes are different – the Galaxy need points to climb out of the lower half, while the Revolution are fighting to stay in the top four.
The Galaxy have not been consistent in their last eight games, winning only once, drawing three and losing four. Their most recent result was a 3-1 loss away to San Diego FC. Before that they drew 2-2 with CF Montreal away, then beat San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 at home. A 1-0 defeat at Houston Dynamo away followed, then a 0-0 draw with FC Dallas at home and a 1-1 draw with San Jose Earthquakes away. In those eight matches they have scored six goals and let in 13. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in three games. Four of the games saw three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.
New England have been steadier, with three wins, three draws and two defeats in their last eight outings. Their latest game was a 3-1 away win over Columbus Crew. Prior to that they drew 1-1 with New York City at home, then thrashed DC United 3-0 away. A 2-1 loss to Toronto FC away came next, followed by a 2-0 home defeat by Houston Dynamo and a 2-2 draw with CF Montreal away. The Revolution have scored 14 and conceded nine in this stretch. They kept two clean sheets but also failed to score in two matches. Five of the eight games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. They are unbeaten in their last three games and have won two of their last four away fixtures.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been high-scoring. In the last five meetings the Galaxy have won three and the Revolution two, with no draws. Those matches have averaged 4.8 goals. The most recent encounter was on August 29, 2022, when New England lost 1-2 at home to Los Angeles. Given the recent form of both sides – the Galaxy scoring six and conceding 13, the Revolution scoring 14 and conceding nine – we expect another open contest with chances at both ends.
Our pick is for both teams to score. Both sides average about 1.4 goals each, and the price of 1.46 is shorter than our reading of the game. We think there is a 58 % chance this will happen. For the bet to fail, one team would need to keep a clean sheet, which looks less likely given the number of games where both sides have scored recently. We feel the price is good and the match should produce goals on either side.
Recent meetings
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