How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 4.5 goals 83%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Seattle Sounders host New York Red Bulls at home on September 6. The Sounders sit 13th out of 15 with 27 points from 22 games and a goal difference of minus five. The Red Bulls are a little higher, 10th with the same 27 points but from 23 games and a goal difference of minus fourteen. Both clubs are fighting to stay clear of the bottom three. Seattle is just one point ahead of Portland Timbers and three points behind Austin FC, while New York sits one point ahead of Toronto FC and level with Philadelphia Union. The two sides have similar points but Seattle’s numbers suggest they are the stronger side.
Seattle’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight matches they have not won a single game, drawing twice and losing six times. The most recent results are a 2-2 draw with Chicago Fire at home and a 1-1 draw with FC Cincinnati away. Before that they fell 2-1 to Austin FC at home, 2-0 to Vancouver Whitecaps at home, 2-1 to Portland Timbers away and 1-0 to Philadelphia Union away. Those eight games have produced seven goals for Seattle and 18 against, with the team failing to score in two of them. In the last four home games they have not won, drawing once and losing three times.
New York’s last eight outings have also been disappointing. They have one win, one draw and six defeats. The most recent fixtures are a 3-1 loss to Philadelphia Union at home, another 3-1 loss to Philadelphia at home, a 1-1 draw with Chicago Fire at home, a 1-0 loss to Nashville SC at home, a 2-1 loss to Atlanta United away and a 3-2 victory over Orlando City at home. Across those eight games the Red Bulls have scored eight goals and let in 17, also failing to find the net twice. Like Seattle, six of those matches saw both sides score.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been relatively open. In the last five meetings Seattle have won three and New York two, with no draws. Those matches have averaged 3.2 goals each. The most recent encounter was a 1-0 win for Seattle on May 28, 2023. Given the recent goal-rich outings for both sides and the history of scoring, we expect a game with around 2.9 goals in total, roughly 1.8 for Seattle and 1.1 for New York.
Our pick is Under 4.5 goals. The price is 1.36, which is longer than our own reading of the game. We think the line is generous because the expected total is well below the threshold. We see an 83 % chance of the game staying under four and a half goals. For the pick to go wrong, both teams would need to combine for five or more goals, which would require a very open match that does not match the recent trend of modest scoring. We are comfortable with the price and feel the under is the right call.
Recent meetings
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