Minnesota United v Orlando City: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 80%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

The numbers tell us Minnesota United are the stronger side, with an expected 2.0 goals compared with Orlando City’s 1.3. That gap is clear but not huge, so we expect chances at both ends. The game should be open, with both teams looking to create scoring opportunities.

Looking back, the two clubs have split their last five meetings evenly – two wins each and one draw – and those games have averaged 3.4 goals. Minnesota’s recent five-game run has been mixed, with just one win, three draws and one loss. Orlando City have also been inconsistent, picking up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five. The most recent clash ended 3-2 to Minnesota, showing both sides can find the net.

We pick the Under 4.5 goals. Our thinking is simple: the expected total is about 3.3 goals, so a line of 4.5 leaves a lot of room for the game to stay under. The price of 1.32 is longer than what we see in the match, which makes the pick attractive. We feel confident, with an 82 % chance of this working out.

For us to be wrong, the game would need to turn into a goal-fest, with five or more goals scored. That would require both teams to be unusually clinical and the defence to fall apart. While it could happen, we do not think it is likely, so we hold our view strongly.

Recent meetings