How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Nashville SC (Draw No Bet) 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Nashville SC look the stronger side on paper. Our goal expectations put them at about two goals while Cincinnati are a little over one. That gap isn’t huge, so we expect chances at both ends. The match should feel open, with both teams able to create scoring opportunities.
Looking at recent form, Nashville have won their last five league games, whether at home or away. Cincinnati have been less consistent, picking up two wins, two draws and one loss in the same span. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Cincinnati have the edge with three wins to Nashville’s single victory and one draw, and those games have produced an average of just over three goals. The most recent encounter ended 2-1 to Cincinnati back in September 2025.
Our pick is Nashville SC on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.40 matches our view of the game, and we feel comfortable with a 73 % chance of success. By using draw-no-bet we remove the risk of a level result – only a Nashville defeat would hurt us.
For the pick to go wrong, Nashville would have to drop points at home, either by drawing or losing. A loss would be needed to turn the bet into a loss. While Cincinnati have shown they can win, the recent five-game winning streak for Nashville makes us fairly confident, so we hold this view strongly.
Recent meetings
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