What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Nashville SC and 1.0 from Columbus Crew, so Nashville SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Nashville SC to win. Nashville SC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Columbus Crew a draw or better. We make it about 56% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
