How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made New York Red Bulls to score 1 or fewer 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from New York City and 0.9 from New York Red Bulls, so New York City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
New York Red Bulls come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: New York Red Bulls to score 1 or fewer. This is about New York Red Bulls's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
New York City have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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