What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from New York City and 1.0 from New York Red Bulls, so New York City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.8-1.0), landing about 60% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓New York City have not won any of their last five.
✓New York Red Bulls have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
17 May 2026New York Red Bulls 1 - 1 New York City
28 Sept 2025New York Red Bulls 2 - 3 New York City
17 May 2025New York City 2 - 0 New York Red Bulls
23 Nov 2024New York City 0 - 2 New York Red Bulls
29 Sept 2024New York Red Bulls 1 - 5 New York City
