What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Philadelphia Union and 2.1 from Inter Miami, so Inter Miami come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Philadelphia Union come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.9 goals between the two (xG 1.8-2.1), landing about 65% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. The price is shorter than our own read of about 65%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
