How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Seattle Sounders to win 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Seattle Sounders and 1.0 from Austin FC, so Seattle Sounders come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Seattle Sounders come into this on five straight defeats. Austin FC come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Seattle Sounders to win. Seattle Sounders are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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