Barrow v Aldershot: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Barrow to score 2 or fewer 73%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from Barrow and 1.3 from Aldershot, so Barrow come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Barrow to score 2 or fewer. This is about Barrow's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 73%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.