Hartlepool v Worthing: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Hartlepool to score 2 or fewer 78%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from Hartlepool and 1.5 from Worthing, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Hartlepool come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Hartlepool to score 2 or fewer. This is about Hartlepool's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.5 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 78%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.