How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Hornchurch (Draw No Bet) 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Barrow and 1.8 from Hornchurch, so Hornchurch come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hornchurch (Draw No Bet). Hornchurch are favoured here (xG 1.1-1.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Hornchurch defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.60, which works out at about 28 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Barrow win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 68%: a lean, not a lock.
