What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Wealdstone and 2.4 from Harrogate, so Harrogate come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 3.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 4.2 goals between the two (xG 1.8-2.4), landing about 60% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.80, which works out at about 36 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come. At around 60% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
