Wealdstone v Harrogate: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 4.2 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 3.5 goals 58%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from Wealdstone and 2.4 from Harrogate, so Harrogate come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Over 3.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 4.2 goals between the two (xG 1.8-2.4), landing about 60% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.

We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.80, which works out at about 36 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.