What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Carlisle and 1.4 from Southend, so Carlisle come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.4), and we make both teams to score about 60%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Carlisle have won two of their last five.
✓Southend have won three of their last five.
Recent meetings
7 Mar 2026Carlisle 2 - 2 Southend
8 Nov 2025Southend 1 - 2 Carlisle
