Halifax v Hartlepool: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 3.5 goals 67%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Halifax look the stronger side in this National League clash. Our goal expectations put Halifax at about one and a half goals and Hartlepool just over one. That means the game should stay fairly tight, with neither team likely to run away with a big lead. Expect a compact match rather than an open goal-fest.

Both clubs have been modestly scoring in recent outings, and the numbers suggest a total of around 2.7 goals. When they have met before, the games have tended to stay under four goals, so the pattern points to a low-scoring affair. The recent goal averages line up with that trend, reinforcing the idea that both sides will keep things tight.

We are backing the Under 3.5 goals. The price on offer is 1.39, which is a bit shorter than what we feel the game deserves, but we still think it’s a decent price. Our own view puts the likely total close to 2.7 goals – roughly 1.6 for Halifax and 1.1 for Hartlepool – so staying under 3.5 should happen about 70% of the time.

For the pick to fail, the match would need to open up and produce four or more goals, which seems unlikely given the low expectations. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we acknowledge it’s a close call rather than a sure thing.