What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Halifax and 1.1 from Hartlepool, so Halifax come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.6-1.1) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 70%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. The price is shorter than our own read of about 70%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
