How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 3.5 goals 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Sutton and 1.3 from Wealdstone, so Sutton come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sutton come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.0 goals (xG 1.7-1.4) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 68%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sutton have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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