Halifax v Hornchurch: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Hornchurch to score 76%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Halifax and 1.7 from Hornchurch, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Hornchurch to score. This is about Hornchurch's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.7 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 76%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.