How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Yeovil and 1.3 from Tamworth, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Yeovil come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.4-1.3) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Yeovil have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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