Worthing v Southend: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 69%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.0 goals from Worthing and 1.7 from Southend, so Worthing come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 2.0-1.7), and we make both teams to score about 69%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.