How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Cliftonville to win 42%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Carrick Rangers and 1.7 from Cliftonville, so Cliftonville come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Cliftonville to win. Cliftonville shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.7), and we make them about 43% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.20, which works out at about 31 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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