Dungannon Swifts v Linfield: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Linfield to win 60%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.9 goals from Dungannon Swifts and 1.9 from Linfield, so Linfield come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Linfield to win. Linfield shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.9), and we make them about 61% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.