How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Larne to win 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Portadown and 1.8 from Larne, so Larne come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Larne to win. Larne shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.8), and we make them about 73% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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