How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Coleraine or Draw 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Coleraine host Linlinfield in a NIFL Premiership clash at the weekend. Coleraine sit top of the 12-team table with 22 points from eight games and a +13 goal difference. Linfield are second, three points behind on 19 points and a +4 goal difference. The gap at the top is slim, so both clubs will be keen to keep the lead. A win for either side could widen the gap, while a draw would keep the race tight. The two teams are separated by only one place, so the stakes are high for both.
Coleraine arrive on the back of three straight victories. Their most recent match was a 1-0 win over Limavady at home. Before that they travelled to beat Glentoran 2-1, and earlier they edged Ballymena United 3-2 at home. In those three games they have scored six goals and let in three. They kept one clean sheet and both sides found the net in two of the three fixtures. The run shows a team that can win both at home and away while still scoring regularly.
Linfield’s form has been mixed over their last eight outings. They began with a 1-0 home win over Crusaders, then drew 1-1 away at Portadown, and followed that with a 1-0 away victory at Dungannon Swifts. After a 3-2 home win over Stjarnan they suffered a 2-0 defeat to the same side away and then lost 3-2 to Pogon Szczecin away. Overall they have scored ten and conceded fourteen, keeping two clean sheets but also failing to score in two games. Their recent unbeaten run of four matches gives them a little momentum, but away from home they have only one win in five trips.
When the two sides meet, the numbers suggest a balanced affair. Both teams are expected to score about one goal each, with a combined total of roughly two and a half goals. The chance of Coleraine finding the net is 75 %, while Linfield’s chance sits at 69 %. Both clubs have a decent chance of scoring twice, though it is less likely. Given the close league positions and recent form, we expect a tight game with both teams able to break the deadlock.
Our pick is Coleraine or a draw. The price of 1.33 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, giving us a good safety net. We think a draw or a narrow home win is the most likely outcome, and the price makes the bet attractive. For this to go wrong, Linfield would need to win outright, perhaps by scoring early and keeping a clean sheet. If they manage that, the pick would fail, but the odds of such a result are low.
Recent results
Coleraine have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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