How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made 2 de Mayo to win 42%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks a little tilted to the home side. 2 de Mayo have a small edge in the goal expectations – about 1.3 each compared with Luqueño’s 1.0. That means we expect a modest number of chances and a fairly tight match, but with the home team a touch more likely to find the net.
Recent results give us a clue about how the teams are feeling. 2 de Mayo have not lost in their last three league outings, picking up two wins and a draw both at home and away. Luqueño’s recent form isn’t listed, so we can only rely on the numbers that show them a little weaker. The pattern suggests the home side will keep their unbeaten run going.
We pick 2 de Mayo to win. The numbers put them at roughly a 43 % chance of victory and the price on offer is 2.20, which is shorter than what we think the game is worth. In other words, the price looks good for a side that is statistically stronger and has been solid in the last few matches.
For this pick to go wrong, Luqueño would need to surprise us with a better finish than the 1.0 goal expectation, or 2 de Mayo would have to drop points despite their recent unbeaten run. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable, so we keep the expectation realistic.
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