Nacional v Libertad: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Draw 32%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

The match looks very even. Both teams are expected to score about one goal each, so the total should be around two goals. There is almost nothing separating them on those numbers, so we can expect a tight game rather than an open free-flowing affair.

Looking back, Nacional have won three of their last five league games but have also lost two, while Libertad have taken two wins, one draw and one loss in their last four. The recent results show neither side is dominating, and the pattern suggests a balanced contest when they meet.

We think a draw is the best call. The goal expectations are almost identical and the chance of each side sharing the points sits at roughly a third. The price of 3.00 matches our view of the game, so we feel it is a fair offer for a result that could easily happen.

For this pick to go wrong, one team would need to break the deadlock and score two or more goals while keeping a clean sheet. That would require a clear edge that the numbers do not show. Our belief in a draw is fairly strong, but we accept a 32 % chance of being right, so we are not overly rigid if the game opens up.