What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Nacional and 1.1 from Libertad, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Draw. There is very little between these two (xG 1.1-1.2), and a share of the spoils is a real possibility at around 34%. When sides are this evenly matched, the draw is worth respecting.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.00, which works out at about 33 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Two-way cover still leaves one result that beats you, and tight games can turn on a single mistake. We make it about 34% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
