How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Nacional or Draw 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Nacional and 1.0 from Sportivo Trinidense, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Nacional come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nacional or Draw. This covers Nacional or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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