How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Olimpia or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Sportivo Ameliano and 1.5 from Olimpia, so Olimpia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Olimpia or Draw. This covers Olimpia or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Olimpia have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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