How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Cerro Porteño to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.9 from Cerro Porteño, so Cerro Porteño come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Cerro Porteño to win. Cerro Porteño shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.8), and we make them about 69% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Cerro Porteño have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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