How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Alianza Atlético to win 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Alianza Atlético and 1.0 from ADC Juan Pablo II, so Alianza Atlético come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Alianza Atlético to win. Alianza Atlético are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.0), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
ADC Juan Pablo II have won two of the last three meetings.
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