What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Asociación Deportiva Tarma and 1.1 from Sport Huancayo, so Asociación Deportiva Tarma come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Asociación Deportiva Tarma (Draw No Bet). Asociación Deportiva Tarma are favoured here (xG 1.7-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Asociación Deportiva Tarma defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Sport Huancayo win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. At around 68% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.