How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Asociación Deportiva Tarma (Draw No Bet) 63%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Asociación Deportiva Tarma and 1.1 from Sport Huancayo, so Asociación Deportiva Tarma come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Asociación Deportiva Tarma (Draw No Bet). Asociación Deportiva Tarma are favoured here (xG 1.7-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Asociación Deportiva Tarma defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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