What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Ucv Moquegua and 1.2 from Alianza Atlético, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Alianza Atlético to win. Alianza Atlético shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.2), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.85, which works out at about 35 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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