How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Universitario de Deportes (Draw No Bet) 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from CD UT Cajamarca and 1.5 from Universitario de Deportes, so Universitario de Deportes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Universitario de Deportes (Draw No Bet). Universitario de Deportes are favoured here (xG 0.8-1.5), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Universitario de Deportes defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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