What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Atlético Grau and 1.1 from FBC Melgar, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: FBC Melgar to win. FBC Melgar shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.1), and we make them about 36% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.70, which works out at about 37 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Atlético Grau only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 36% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
