How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Comerciantes Unidos to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Comerciantes Unidos and 1.2 from Sport Huancayo, so Comerciantes Unidos come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Comerciantes Unidos to win. Comerciantes Unidos are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.2), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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