How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Los Chankas to win 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Los Chankas and 1.4 from FC Cajamarca, so Los Chankas come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Los Chankas to win. Los Chankas are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.4), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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